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Buddy Frank, CDC Gaming Reports · February 28, 2019 at 3:00 pm
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There are lots of reasons to be optimistic about skill-based games on the casino floor:- eSports, which are pure skill-based games without any element of chance, are booming.
- The games have been blessed by regulators in Nevada, the traditional birthplace of all things gaming.
- All the major machine suppliers have released games with skill elements.
- There’s an exciting group of disrupters dedicated to the space (Gamblit Gaming, GameCo, Next Gaming, and Synergy Blue, among others).
- Haven’t you read at least a dozen articles saying that casinos will go extinct if we don’t attract millennials, and that millennials will “only play skill-based games?”
Therefore, it almost seems like heresy for me to say in print, “They’re just not working.” My position got some support this week as Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairwoman Sandra Douglass Morgan echoed my words. She said, “Skill-based slot machines have not gained significant popularity on the casino floor.” Indeed, there isn’t a single “skill” game in any national report that has achieved a performance index much above average. At least not yet.
Yet articles – like the one I wrote recently reporting on an industry survey – say slot operation folks are optimistic. That survey, conducted by Synergy Blue, revealed that 70 percent of casinos “have, plan to, or are considering adopting skill-based games, games with skill components, or games with arcade-style play.” I believe that research is completely accurate, but the question and the interpretation are less so. I would have given the same answer if polled. But there’s a large gap between “interest in,” “buying” and “working.”
You may recall that similar surveys were just as enthusiastic about server-based Class 3 games a decade ago. Interest was high; so was the excitement. Today, all that hype is gone, and so are the games. They may still work someday, but they were a leap too far for the then-current floor technology, and they provided a terrific solution for something that wasn’t that much of a problem. Skill-based elements may have some of the same issues. There’s no denying that there’s a whole generation of eSports enthusiasts that will reach that magic AARP milestone of 50+ years old soon. That’s when increases in discretionary time and income – combined with slower reaction times and a reduced need to e-socialize – seem to match up better with slot player demographics.
The Washington Post recently reported that last year’s DOTA 2 International eSports tournament had a prize pool of $25.5 million. They went on to say that’s a bigger purse than you get for winning the Daytona 500 ($15.5M) or the U.S. Open golf tournament ($12M).
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For those of you out of the loop, DOTA 2 is a multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) video game, where players have a top-down view of the battlefield and control a single squad into battle against one . For those of you who were, like me, raised on Atari, it’s like Missile Command or Tank, but played at warp-speed (professional players can exceed 300 individual commands per minute!) with dozens of little warriors trying to kill you.
Here’s another one from the Post: the 2017 League of Legends World Championship, held in Beijing, drew a peak of over 106 million viewers, roughly on par with the audience for the 2018 Super Bowl (which was itself bigger than the 2019 Super Bowl viewership). Likewise, the previously-mentioned DOTA 2 International drew a larger TV audience than Wimbledon or the Tour de France. And it matched the viewership of the Kentucky Derby at 15 million eyeballs.In other words, eSports are a big deal, with pro players competing at astonishing levels that you (or at least 106 million of you) have to see to believe. That is the very reason that eSports and skill-based gaming are impossible to compare. Can you imagine the millionaire winner of the lightning-fast DOTA 2 getting excited by moving the simulated joystick of IGT’s Wrecking Ball, one of today’s strongest performing slots that features a skill element? It would be like a Formula One driver competing in a tricycle race.
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At the opposite end of the spectrum, there’s another critical issue: the players have to already have some skill in order to enjoy playing the games. IGT often chose my former teammates at Pechanga Resort & Casino to test and evaluate new games. One of them, the vampire-themed Blood Life, officially launched in late fall of 2009, but we had it a bit earlier. The cabinet featured a physical, arcade-style joystick; the skill element was triggered when players hit a bonus and were given the opportunity to fly a bat, using the joystick through a simple maze in order to increase the awards. We first recruited our Social Media team – all of whom were certified millennials – to give it a shot. Not one of them failed to negotiate the maze for maximum points on their first attempt.
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Continued in Part 2