Some people might want to know how to find the payout percentage on a slot machine. Sadly, it’s not something that’s printed on most games — at least not here in the United States.
This post is for them.
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Understanding this topic involves some rudimentary understanding of probability as it relates to casino gambling. You’ll need to understand three separate concepts thoroughly:
- Payback percentage
- House edge
- Return to player
This post explains each of those in enough detail that even a beginner should understand what they mean.
Some Basic Facts Related to Probability, the House Edge, Payback Percentage, and Return to Player
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with how likely an event is to happen. If you want to measure how likely you are to win a jackpot on a slot machine, probability is the way to figure that out.
But the word also refers directly to that likelihood.
In other words, if I say the probability of getting heads when I flip a coin is 50%, I’m not talking about that branch of mathematics. I’m talking about the actual statistical likelihood of that event.
You should understand a few things about probability in general.
Probability is always a number between 0 and 1. An event with a probability of 0 will never happen, and an event with a probability of 1 will always happen. The closer to 1 the probability is, the more likely the event is to happen.
Probability can be expressed multiple ways. It can be expressed as a fraction, a decimal, a percentage, or as odds. The probability of getting heads on a coin flip can be expressed as 1/2, 0.5, 50%, or 1 to 1.
An event’s probability is the number of ways it can happen divided by the total number of possible outcomes. When you’re discussing a coin toss, you have two possible outcomes. Only one of those is heads. That makes the probability 1/2.
The probability that an event will occur added to the probability that an event won’t occur always equals 1. Therefore, if you know the probability that something will happen, you also automatically know the probability that it won’t happen, and vice versa.
The house edge is a statistical measure of how much the house expects to win (on average, over the long run) from every bet you make on a game. The house edge is a theoretical number that accounts for the probability of winning versus the probability of losing AND the payout if you win.
All casino games carry a house edge. In the short run, it doesn’t matter much, but in the long run, it’s the most important thing.
If I say a game has a house edge of 4%, this means that over time, you should average a loss of $4 for every $100 you bet on the game. This is a long run statistical average, though. In the short run, you’re unlikely to see results that mirror the house edge.
The return to player and the payback percentage are the same thing. Some writers use one to refer to the statistical expectation and the other to refer to the actual results, but most writers use these terms interchangeably.
The payback percentage added to the house edge always equals 100%. The payback percentage is the amount of each bet that you get back, and the house edge is the amount of each bet that the casino wins. Again, these numbers are on average over the long run.
A game with a 4% house edge has a 96% payback percentage.
In the United States, slot machine payback percentages are impossible to calculate and not posted on gambling machines. To calculate the house edge or the payback percentage for a casino game, you need two pieces of data:
- The probability of winning
- The amount of money you’ll win (the payoff)
Slot machines include their payouts on their pay tables, but they don’t include the probability of achieving any of the winning outcomes.
In some countries, the payback percentage is posted on the machines, but not in the United States.
To make things even worse for a slot machine player, the random number generator program can be set differently even if the slot machine is identical to the one next to it. You could be playing The Big Lebowski slots at Choctaw Casino in Durant, Oklahoma, and your buddy could be playing the identical machine right next to you.
The payback percentage on his machine might be 94%, and the payback percentage on your machine might only be 88%.
The difference comes from how the probabilities are weighted for each symbol. On one game, the bars might show up 1/4 of the time, but on the next, they might only come up 1/8 of the time.
This has an obvious effect on the payback percentage.
The payback percentage would be easy to calculate if you knew the probabilities. The payback percentage is just the total expected value of all the possible outcomes on the machine.
Let’s assume you have 1000 possible reel combinations. Let’s also assume that if you got each of those in order, from 1 to 1000, you’d win 900 coins.
The payback percentage for that game would be 90%.
You’d put 1000 coins in, and you’d have 900 coins left after a statistically perfect sampling of 1000 spins.
If you knew the payback percentage and house edge for a slot machine game, you could predict your theoretical cost of playing that game per hour in the long run. You’d only need to multiply the numbers of bets you made per hour by the size of those bets. Then you’d multiply that by the house edge to get your predicted loss.
Most slots players make 600 spins per hour. Let’s assume you’re playing on a dollar machine and betting three coins on every spin, or $3 per spin. You’re putting $1,800 per hour into action.
If the slot machine had a 90% payback percentage, you’d lose $180 per hour on that machine. You’d have $1,800 at the start of the hour and $1,620 at the end of the hour — assuming you saw statistically predicted results.
In the real world, though, where you’d be seeing short-term results, you’d see some hours where you won and some hours where you lost. If you played long enough, the Law of Large Numbers would ensure that you’d eventually see the statistically predicted results.
But in the long run, the math will ensure that the casino will win a net profit.
How You Could Calculate a Payback Percentage Based on Actual Results
Of course, you have some data that you can directly observe when you’re playing slot machines.
But tracking this data and calculating the payback percentage on a specific session can add to your enjoyment of any slot machine game. It can make you more mindful because you’ll be paying more attention to what’s happening.
Here’s how to do it.
Start by tracking how many spins you’re making per hour. This is easy to do, but it takes more effort than you might think. It might help to get one of those clicky things people use to count stuff with. You will probably also need a stopwatch of some kind. I just use the timer function on my phone.
Make a note (mental is fine) of how much you’re betting per spin. It helps to bet the same amount.
Also note how much money you started with so that you can calculate how much you’ve won or lost. The slot machine will convert your money into credits. The easiest thing to do is to keep up with how many credits you had at the beginning of the session and again at the end of the session.
Now, let’s do the math using a hypothetical 45-minute session.
I made 300 spins in 45 minutes. I was betting $3 per spin, and I started with $600.
After my playing session, I had $500 left. At times I was up, and at times I was down.
But my net loss was $100. (My starting bankroll was $600, and I finished with $500.)
Over 300 spins, that means I lost an average per spin of 33 cents. $100 in losses divided by 300 spins is 33.33 cents per spin.
How much was I betting per spin?
Since I was playing a $1 machine, and my max bet was three coins, I was risking $3 per spin.
33 cents is 11% of $3, which means my actual loss was 11%. The machine paid back 89% for the session.
Does this mean that the payback percentage for the machine is 89%?
Probably not.
In the scheme of things, 450 spins is a small sample size. To have any confidence in your statistics, you really need to have at least 5,000 spins under your belt.
Even then, depending on how volatile the game is, your actual results might be wildly different from the mathematically expected payback percentage.
Here’s another example that will prove that point.
My friend Leo went to the Winstar last weekend and played the $5 slots. He started with $3,000, and when he left, he had $4,800, which means he had an $1,800 profit for the day.
He played for seven hours.
I’ve watched Leo play. He’s slow, but not much slower than average. He makes about 500 spins per hour.
This means that he made about 3,500 spins.
$1,800 in winnings divided by 3,500 spins is an average win of 51 cents per spin.
Since he was betting $5 per spin, his return was 10.3%.
His actual return for the trip on that slot machine was 110.3%.
I have friends who design slot machines for a living — more than one, in fact. They’ll be happy to tell anyone who asks that the algorithm is never set up to have a payback percentage of more than 100%.
What About the Casinos That Advertise a Specific Payback Percentage?
Some casinos advertise a specific payback percentage. This is almost always stated as an “up to” number.
So you might see an ad for a casino that says, “Payback percentages up to 98%!”
They’re almost certainly telling the truth, too. They probably have one slot machine in their casino that has a payback percentage of 98%. Of course, it isn’t labeled, so you don’t know which one it is.
And in the short run, which is what you’re going to be playing in as an individual gambler, there’s not much difference between a 98% payback percentage and a 92% payback percentage. You could walk away a winner or a loser at either setting.
Also, keep in mind that the games aren’t designed to tighten up after a win and loosen up after a lot of losing spins. That’s not how it works at all.
The machines are designed to allow you to win a certain specific percentage of the time because of the probability. Then there’s an average amount that you’ll win based on the payout for the specific combination of symbols that you hit.
But every spin of the reels on a slot machine is an independent event. You can hit a jackpot on a spin, and your probability of hitting the jackpot on the next spin hasn’t changed at all.
What About the Denominations and Location Reports I See Advertised on the Internet?
You’ll find websites like Strictly Slots and American Casino Guide which post payback percentages for specific denominations and specific casinos. These are AVERAGES.
These averages have little bearing on the machine that you’re sitting in front of.
For example,
you might be looking at a casino that reports an average payback percentage of 94% on its dollar slot machines. That casino might have half their machines paying off at 90% and the other half paying off at 98%.
And you won’t be able to differentiate between the two because the hit ratio might be the same from one of those machines to another.
What Do Hit Ratio and Volatility Have to Do With It?
The hit ratio is the percentage of time that you can expect to hit a winning combination on a slot machine. Something like 30% isn’t unusual, but it can vary 10% or more in either direction. The casinos want you to a hit a winning combination often enough that you won’t lose interest in playing the game.
But hit ratio is only part of the equation. The average size of the prize amounts is also important. Volatility takes this into account. A game that hits less often but has higher average prize amounts might have the same payback percentage as a game that hits more often but with lower payouts.
Either way, in the short run, it will be all but impossible to discover this number, too.
If you wanted to, you could track how many spins resulted in wins for you and calculate the percentage, but you’re facing the same obstacle you are with the overall payback percentage of the machine.
You just don’t know what it’s programmed to accomplish in the long run.
Online Slot Machines
Some online casinos post the payback percentages for their slot machine games. I think this information is of limited use, but I also think it’s fairer to the gambler than not providing them with that information.
After all, table games are transparent. You can calculate the house edge for any casino table game there is because they all use random number generators with known quantities — cards, dice, and wheels.
There’s been a push to label food, both at the grocery store and at restaurants, with nutritional information that includes caloric amounts.
Requiring casinos to provide similar information about their gambling machines only makes sense.
We’ll see if it ever happens, though.
Conclusion
You can’t find the payout percentage on a slot machine — at least not in the United States.
I’ve heard that you can get this information on slot machines in Europe, but I’ve never seen an actual photograph of this kind of labeling.
You can, though, have some fun calculating actual payback percentages in the short run. This at least gives you something to keep track of while you’re playing slots, which is honestly one of the more mindless activities in the casino.
by Steve Bourie
The Seminole Tribe of Florida has six casinos in the state: Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Tampa; Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Hollywood; Seminole Casino-Coconut Creek; SeminoleClassic Casino-Hollywood; Seminole Casino-Brighton; and Seminole Casino-Immokalee.
All of their casinos offer slot machines and five of them also offer blackjack, as well as other kinds of house-banked card games. According to the Miami Herald, it was estimated those casinosgenerated about $2.3 billion in profits in 2016 http://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/article166085722.html. Since the average U.S. casino generates about 65% of its profits from its electronic gaming machines, it would be fair toestimate that the Tribe’s machines earn about $1.5 billion a year for them.
The only other competition for the Tribe’s casinos are the eight local pari-mutuels in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties which all offer slot machines, but are not allowed to offer live tablegames, such as blackjack. All of these pari-mutuel casinos, also known as racinos, are in competition with the Seminole’s three Broward county casinos, but the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel& Casino in Hollywood alone generates more profits than all eight of the racinos combined.
Florida gaming regulations require all of the pari-mutuel casinos to report how much their slot machines actually pay back to the public. This “Average Payout Percentage” information isavailable to the public and can be seen on the state’s website at http://www.myfloridalicense.com/dbpr/pmw in the “Slot Revenues” section. Additionally, each racino must post a sign in the casino showing the average monthly payback percentage forall of their gaming machines. Usually, the average for all of the casinos is around 92.5%
The Seminoles are not required to release information on the payout percentages for any of their casinos and they keep this information a closely guarded secret. They say that theirmachines pay out at a rate comparable to the pari-mutuels, but no one knows for sure, and the topic is sometimes a source of controversy.
If you read reviews of Seminole casinos on Yelp, Tripadvisor, or on our website at americancasinoguide.com you will see some reviewers say they believe the machines are set to around 60%, orlower. As someone who has written about casino gambling for more than 25 years, I know that isn’t true. The procedure for deciding what a slot machine is set to pay back to the public is rathersimple. When a casino orders a slot machine the manufacturer will offer them a choice of chips to put in the machine and that chip is what controls the long-term payback percentage in thatmachine. Generally, there are about six to eight different chips to choose from and the payback percentages can be as high as 98 percent to as low as 82 percent.
Casinos, almost universally, put the highest-paying chips in the highest denomination machines and the lowest-paying chips in the lowest denomination machines. This means that $25 slots willhave chips returning around 95-98 percent and the penny machines will have chips returning around 86-89 percent.
The lowest payback I ever heard of for a chip was about 80 percent, so I knew that the 60 percent number in the user reviews was not correct, but could there be some way to find out what themachines at the Seminole casinos really paid back to the public? After a lot of research, I believe that I have correctly calculated this information and what follows is my story of how I didit, plus a simple formula to show how anyone can do it. Additionally, we’ll take a look at the returns on some specific machines at some Seminole Casinos and see how they compare to the returnsat other casinos. Now, in order to start this discussion properly, you’ll first need some background information on how casinos work.
When discussing how casinos make money, it is important to know the term “theo,” which is short for theoretical. This is how a casino expects to make money on its games. It’s referred to as“theo” because it is a theoretical number that is not guaranteed. However, the casino knows that the longer you play, the more likely your loss will approach the theoretical win for thatparticular game.
As an example, if you play a slot machine that has a 10% theo, then the casino would expect to keep about 10% of all the money you play through that machine. So, if you played $1,000 throughthat slot machine, the casino would calculate its theoretical win as $100 because 10% of $1,000 is $100. Now, since this is gambling, anything can happen when you play that machine. You may win$600, or you may lose $400 and, actually, the casino itself doesn’t know what will happen. All they know is that as long as people continue to play that machine, the casino will end up keepingabout 10% of the money that goes through that machine because the machine has a “theo” of 10%.
In order for a casino to calculate your total theo for your visit, and what you are worth as a player to them, your play must be tracked and that is done by the player’s club at each casino.All casinos have a player’s club where visitors can join and have their play tracked on the machines in order to earn “comps” such as free food, free drinks, free shows, free gifts, invitationsto special events and more.
To track your play you are issued a card, similar to a magnetic-striped credit card, that is inserted into the machine and it will track your wins and losses, as well as the total amount of allyour bets. Naturally, the more you play on the machines, the more free stuff you will get from the casino. When deciding how much to give you back in benefits for your play, the casino mustfirst calculate your total theoretical loss to determine how much they have earned from you. Then, based on that total, they will rebate a certain percentage back to you in the form ofcomps and free play. The actual percentage rebated to the player is a trade secret for each casino but, again, it is always based on a player’s tracked theoretical loss.
I live only one mile from the Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Hollywood and I joined their Seminole Wild Card player’s club shortly after the property opened in 2004. Although I did not playmuch in the ensuing years, in late 2013 I began to play rather heavily and it continued through early 2017. My game of choice was video poker rather than slot machines because there is a skillinvolved in video poker and I used software to learn how to play my hands properly. Eventually, I played at an expert level that allowed the casino to have only a slight mathematical edge overme.
Overall, my results were pretty good as I hit quite a few royal flushes in 2016 and that helped me to come out ahead for my three years of play. In early 2017 the casino made some changes totheir video poker games, which made them less desirable, and I stopped playing. During my period of play I used that opportunity to analyze the Seminole Wild Card Player’s club and, following,is what I discovered.
The set-up of the Seminole Wild Card Player’s club is somewhat unusual because at most casinos when you play a machine you will earn points based on the total amount of money you put through amachine. On some machines it may be that $5 earns one point, while on other machines it may be $10 or $25 earns one point.
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The Seminole Wild Card Player’s club is different because players don’t earn points on each machine, instead they earn comp dollars. As an example, for playing $10 through one machine you mightearn six cents, while on another machine you might only earn three cents. So, if you ended up playing $1,000 for the day on the same machine, your comps would total $6 on the first machine, or$3 on the second machine. As a player, you wouldn't really know why one machine gave more comps, but you could correctly theorize that the machines that had a higher rate meant that the casinowas making more of a theoretical win from you and that's why they could give you back more comps.
The comps you earned could then be spent like regular dollars at hotels, restaurants, bars, lounges and retail stores at any of the six Seminole Casinos. Besides earning comps, each day's playalso earned you status credits and those enabled you to reach a higher player's card level. Interestingly, there was no information on a formula for how the status credits were earned. As aplayer all you knew was that you could check your account each day to see how many status credits you earned for your previous day's play.
The player's club only has three tiers: Platinum, Elite and X Card. All players start at Platinum and to reach Elite you need to earn 3,750 status credits within a three-month period. X Card isreserved for the casino's biggest players, but there is no public information available on what is needed to attain that level.
I easily attained Elite level and after tracking the comps and status credits I earned each day, within a few months I began to realize that the status credits actually represented my totaltheoretical loss for each day. I was able to confirm this through test play on certain machines, as well as speaking with other knowledgeable players.
Once I knew that the earned status credits represented my total theoretical loss I was then able to compare that number to the total comps I earned on that same day and I realized that therewas a relationship between those two numbers. As an example, one day I earned $48.75 in comps and I was awarded 828 status credits. By multiplying $48.75 by a factor of 17 the result was828. Another day I earned $30.83 in comps and 524 status credits. Once again, by multiplying $30.83 by 17 the result was 524. That relationship was absolute and no matter what day I played, Ifound that I could always multiply the amount of my earned comps by 17 to determine my status credits (theoretical loss) for that day.
Since I now knew how to calculate my theoretical loss for the day, based on the comps I earned, I then realized that I would be able to calculate what the casino had set as its theoreticalpayback percentage for any electronic game on the floor.
How to Calculate the Theoretical Payback Percentage on a Slot Machine - I believe that anyone can calculate the theoretical payback percentage on any gaming machine in aSeminole Casino by using a formula that I created. The key to calculating a machine’s theoretical payback percentage is to track how many comp dollars you earn for putting exactly $100 in playthrough a machine. For example, if you bet $1 a spin, just track how many comp dollars you have earned after making 100 bets. Once you know that number, you can simply multiply it by 17 and youwill know the casino’s theoretical win rate for that machine. Deduct that number from 100, and you will then know the theoretical payback for that machine.
As an example, let’s say you put $100 through a penny slot machine and you earn 54 cents in comps. Just multiply .54 x 17 and you will get 9.18, which represents the casino’s theoretical winrate for that machine - 9.18%. Then, deduct 9.18 from 100 and you get 90.82 which would represent the casino’s theoretical payback percentage for that particular machine - 90.82%.
I found this method to be accurate and I tested it on dozens of machines at four different Seminole casinos. It should also work at the other two Seminole casinos since they all share the sameplayer’s club. One word of warning, however, is that I found the method to only be accurate for single-denomination machines. If you play a multi-denomination machine the method cannot berelied upon to give you an accurate payback percentage for all of the denominations.
How Do Slot Paybacks at the Hard Rock in Hollywood Compare to the Other Local Casinos? In trying to determine an average payback percentage for slot machines at the Hard Rock in Hollywood, Irealized that it would not be possible to get an actual accounting and I would just have to make an educated guess based on the results of playing some machines in different denominations.
Therefore, I randomly played 10 different machines throughout the casino in three different denominations: pennies, quarter and dollars. As mentioned previously, I had to play exactly $100through each machine and in some instances it wasn’t possible to play exactly $100, so I might have gone over by a few pennies.
In the table below you can see the results for playing 10 random penny slots and the average theoretical return was 88.37%
| Date Played | Machine # | Name | comps earned for $100 coin-in | Theoretical Hold | Theoretical Payback |
| 30-Nov | 012714 10130 | Moon Maidens | $0.68 | 11.56% | 88.44% |
| 17-Aug | 040312 04892 | Quick Strike Mystery Rewards | 0.69 | 11.73% | 88.27% |
| 30-Nov | 010103 11114 | Desert Dawn | 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% |
| 17-Aug | 034106 09083 | Quick Hit Platinum | 0.64 | 10.88% | 89.12% |
| 17-Aug | 050907 10010 | Fu Dao Le | 0.69 | 11.73% | 88.27% |
| 30-Nov | 012106 11952 | Jungle Riches | 0.69 | 11.73% | 88.27% |
| 17-Aug | 013504 10609 | Super Wheel Blast Lion of Venice | 0.70 | 11.90% | 88.10% |
| 17-Aug | 013510 10618 | Wild Leprecoins | 0.70 | 11.90% | 88.10% |
| 17-Aug | 043702 08245 | Buffalo Special Edition | 0.72 | 12.24% | 87.76% |
| 14-Oct | 051502 12178 | Rumble Rumble Bison | 0.74 | 12.58% | 87.42% |
| Average | 11.63% | 88.37% | |||
In the table below you can see the results for playing 10 random quarter slots and the average theoretical return was 90.89%
| Date Played | Machine # | Name | comps earned for $100 coin-in | Theoretical Hold | Theoretical Payback |
| 30-Nov | 067510 11231 | The Enforcer | $0.45 | 7.65% | 92.35% |
| 30-Nov | 032301 32091 | Triple Double Diamond | 0.53 | 9.01% | 90.99% |
| 30-Nov | 013704 09830 | Thunder Eyes | 0.54 | 9.18% | 90.82% |
| 30-Nov | 074701 11731 | Quick Hit Platnum Plus | 0.63 | 10.71% | 89.29% |
| 30-Nov | 101406 08598 | Cash Cove | 0.49 | 8.33% | 91.67% |
| 16-Oct | 064103 09534 | Colossal Cash Grand Dragon | 0.47 | 7.99% | 92.01% |
| 16-Oct | 034708 12048 | Double Hot Fire | 0.54 | 9.18% | 90.82% |
| 16-Oct | 075307 10059 | Black Diamond | 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% |
| 16-Oct | 101309 09950 | Mystery Rewards Glistening Jade - Rapid Hit Fever | 0.53 | 9.01% | 90.99% |
| 30-Nov | 075305 09528 | Crystal Star | 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% |
| Average: | 9.11% | 90.89% | |||
In the table below you can see the results for playing 10 random dollar slots and the average theoretical return was 91.40%
| Date Played | Machine # | Name | comps earned for $100 coin-in | Theoretical Hold Hold | Theoretical Payback |
| 17-Aug | 075504 50787 | Spin & Win Instant Spin | $0.47 | 7.99% | 92.01% |
| 17-Aug | 069001 09079 | Quick Hit Platinum | 0.51 | 8.67% | 91.33% |
| 12-Oct | 069710 09348 | Wild Red Sevens | 0.44 | 7.48% | 92.52% |
| 12-Oct | 069707 09345 | Triple 777 Red Hot 3 Reels | 0.44 | 7.48% | 92.52% |
| 12-Oct | 041806 05563 | Black & White 7s | 0.47 | 7.99% | 92.01% |
| 30-Nov | 067804 10546 | Double Jackpot Lions Share | 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% |
| 14-Oct | 065405 10508 | Midnight Eclipse | 0.47 | 7.99% | 92.01% |
| 30-Nov | 068904 08728 | Dragons Luck | 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% |
| 30-Nov | 068105 10158 | Sky Rider | 0.58 | 9.86% | 90.14% |
| 16-Oct | 055307 50806 | Blazing 7s 3 Reel | 0.50 | 8.50% | 91.50% |
| Average: | 8.60% | 91.40% | |||
So, now that we have analyzed the theoretical payback percentages on these machines, how do they compare to the actual returns on slots at other South Florida casinos in those samedenominations?
Well, unfortunately, Florida’s Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering, which compiles the statistics on payback percentages for all racetrack casinos only releases information on the average payoutfor all machines within each casino and not for specific denominations. We did put in a public records request asking for a breakdown of those stats by denomination, but we received thefollowing reply: “The Division does not maintain information responsive to the following request: slot machine gaming revenue reports by denomination (one cent, nickel, quarter, dollar, etc.).”
Since we couldn’t get information on payback percentages by denomination, it was not possible to compare the Hard Rock’s machines with those at the pari-mutuels. However, it was possible tomake an educated guess about the overall returns on the Hard Rock’s machines. For the 12-month period from July 2016 through June 2017, the pari-mutuel casino with the highest average returnswas Magic City at 93.55% and the lowest returns could be found at the Isle in Pompano where they averaged 90.91%. Therefore, based on the numbers shown in the tables above, I would have toagree that the Hard Rock Hollywood’s slot paybacks are “comparable” to those at other local casinos and they are not set to pay back at the low rates that some people would suggest.
How Do Returns on Machines at The Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Tampa Compare to Returns at Casinos in South Florida? On the American Casino Guide website visitors can leave a review forany U.S. casino and the Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa has gotten almost 200 reviews - https://www.americancasinoguide.com/florida/seminole-hard-rock-hotel-a-casino-tampa.html The vast majority of those reviews are complaints about how bad the paybacks are on the slotmachines. The thinking seems to be that, once again, the machines are set to pay back at a very low rate, especially since the Tampa casino has no competition because the nearest non-Seminolecasino is about 250 miles away. That sentiment seemed somewhat logical to me so I thought I would investigate further by making a trip to Tampa to visit the casino.
I arrived late in the day and I spent a few hours that evening, as well as a few more hours the next morning testing various machines using my formula. My thought was to find some of theexact same machines I played at the Hard Rock in Hollywood and to see if the theoretical payback percentages were lower. This turned out to be harder than I expected as I found it difficult tofind the same machines in the same denominations. One other thing I noticed was that there did not seem to be too many penny slots. Instead, the vast majority of the lower denomination gameswere two-cent slots. This was not the case at the Hard Rock casino in Hollywood, where penny machines were abundant.
Eventually, I did find a few machines, in three specific denominations, that were the exact same as the ones I played in Hollywood and the table below shows how the results compared.
For penny games there were three machines I tested and, interestingly, all three had the same theoretical payback percentage as at the Hollywood Hard Rock.
| Date Played | Machine # | Name | comps earned for $100 coin-in | Theoretical Hold | Theoretical Payback | Location |
| 14-Oct | 051502 12178 | Bison Rumble Rumble | $ 0.74 | 12.58% | 87.42% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 082802 05797 | Bison Rumble Rumble | $ 0.74 | 12.58% | 87.42% | Tampa |
| 17-Aug | 050907 10010 | Fu Dao Le | $ 0.69 | 11.73% | 88.27% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 092206 6026 | Fu Dao Le | $ 0.69 | 11.73% | 88.27% | Tampa |
| 17-Aug | 070712 04056 | Buffalo Special Edition | $ 0.72 | 12.24% | 87.76% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 043702 08245 | Buffalo Special Edition | $ 0.72 | 12.24% | 87.76% | Tampa |
Finding quarter games proved to be a bit harder. I only found two machines that were identical to ones at the Hollywood casino and, once again, the theoretical payback percentages matched upfor both casinos.
| Date Played | Machine # | Name | comps earned for $100 coin-in | Theoretical Hold | Theoretical Payback | Location |
| 16-Oct | 075307 10059 | Black Diamond | $ 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 324002 30380 | Black Diamond | $ 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% | Tampa |
| 30-Nov | 075305 09528 | Crystal Star | $ 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 015205 30371 | Crystal Star | $ 0.59 | 10.03% | 89.97% | Tampa |
At the dollar level I found four machines that matched up with their Hollywood casino counterparts. On the first one, Triple 777 Red Hot Three Reels, the comps earned were the same as at theHollywood casino. This was great because the comp rate on every machine was matching up perfectly, so far, but that soon stopped.
| Date Played | Machine # | Name | comps earned for $100 coin-in | Theoretical Hold | Theoretical Payback | Location |
| 17-Aug | 069707 09345 | Triple 7 Red Hot Three Reels | $ 0.44 | 7.48% | 92.52% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 380605 50232 | Triple 7 Red Hot Three Reels | $ 0.44 | 7.48% | 92.52% | Tampa |
| 16-Oct | 055307 50806 | Blazing 7s Three Reel | $ 0.50 | 8.50% | 91.50% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 040111 50330 | Blazing 7s Three Reel | $ 0.39 | 6.63% | 93.37% | Tampa |
| 17-Aug | 069001 09079 | Quick Hit Platinum | $ 0.51 | 8.67% | 91.33% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 180209 50437 | Quick Hit Platinum | $ 0.41 | 6.97% | 93.03% | Tampa |
| 17-Aug | 075504 50787 | Spin And Win Instant Spin | $ 0.47 | 7.99% | 92.01% | Hollywood |
| 23-Oct | 353601 50197 | Spin And Win Instant Spin | $ 0.56 | 9.52% | 90.48% | Tampa |
On the three-reel blazing 7’s machine the comp rate was 39 cents, which would correspond to a theoretical payback percentage of 93.37%, which was higher than the 91.50% figure for the samemachine in Hollywood. A similar thing happened with the next machine I tested: Quick Hit Platinum. The comp rate on this game was 41 cents which would equal a theoretical payback percentage of93.03% which, again, was higher than the 91.33% figure for the same machine in Hollywood.
Then, on the last dollar machine I played, Spin & Win Instant Spin, the results were slightly worse. That machine gave 56 cents in comps, which would correspond to a theoretical return of90.48%, versus the same machine in Hollywood which came in at 92.01%
Slot Machine Hard Meters Uncaged
So, interestingly, the theoretical payback percentages for the first eight slot machines in Tampa were either equal to, or better than, the same machines in Hollywood. This was very surprisingas I thought they would be lower at the Tampa casino because they had no direct competition.
But what about all those player reviews complaining that the slots in Tampa paid less than the slots in Hollywood? Well, my research showed that the machines were set to pay back at about thesame rate in both places. However, there didn’t seem to be quite as many penny machines in Tampa, most of them were 2-cents and higher, and this could offer an explanation.
Penny machines are the most common denomination found in U.S. casinos. For example, at the two Indian casinos in Connecticut, Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, penny machines make up about 60% of allthe slots on the floor. While I didn’t take an inventory of all the machines in Tampa I was struck by the fact that penny machines were not in abundance. Since the Tampa casino has nocompetition, it could be that they were forcing players to make a higher average bet simply by having fewer penny machines available. If so, a higher average bet would result in players losingtheir money faster, thus explaining the sour sentiments of some players. Keep in mind that the Hollywood casino would not be able to easily do the same thing because of competition from othercasinos. If a player in Hollywood didn’t think there were enough penny games available they could just go to a different casino. A player in Tampa would not have that option.
Slot Machine Hard Meters Conversion
Now, looking back, it is true that one slot machine in Tampa did come in with a lower theoretical rate, but that could have simply been a mistake. Keep in mind that the casino knows what thechip in each machine is set to pay back to the public on a long-term basis and, in turn, they will set the player’s club comp rate to approximate that number. Sometimes mistakes are made andthe rate could be set too high, or too low. That could be what happened here, or perhaps it was intentional and there was a specific reason for that particular setting.
In conclusion, I hope that everyone reading this report understands that it is not a complete analysis of all machines at either casino. To undertake such a project would have required a hugeamount of manpower, plus a rather large bankroll to withstand the gambling losses that would be expected.
I am just one person who set out to investigate this subject as it is my area of expertise. I have been writing about payback percentages at casinos for more than 25 years and I believe that mywork is accurate. Should anyone from Seminole casino operations want to present any further information on this subject I would welcome hearing from them. I would be also be glad to print anyrebuttal that they might want to send to me concerning this article.